I noticed two apparently-unrelated news articles today:
One talks about declining unit sales of phones and the other talks about the same thing for PCs.
Reading these articles, you’d think the sky is falling. Less phones are selling, on an annual basis! Less PCs too! Oh no! These industries are in trouble!
I think the reality is actually much simpler: PCs have been quite good for years now. Smart phones have likewise reached a plateau in terms of functionality and performance. Sure, new PCs and phones are nicer than old ones, but the extra screen pixels, camera resolution and compute power are not solving any new problems – they just meet the same old needs slightly better than before.
More than that, both PCs and phones are increasingly used to access cloud platforms. The heavy computation, storage, etc. are done on someone else’s server, not on personal devices any more. This makes local compute and storage even less meaningful.
So when a hardware manufacturer asks for $1000 for a shiny new phone or $1500 for a shiny new PC, most consumers compare the extra value of the new toy to the functionality of their existing PC or phone and choose to just leave the old device alone. It’s not broken. It’s working fine. Why upgrade?
I think this is the new normal. If you write software, or provide on-line services, then you shouldn’t care about this. People are on-line pervasively. They use browsers to access everything. There is no problem here.
If you are a phone or PC manufacturer, you just have to reset your expectations. The hardware replacement cycle is lengthening, not because consumers don’t want your product any more, but because your last generation was very good and the current generation is not so much better as to justify a new purchase. You’ll still sell lots of units, but the age of rapid growth is over. Heck, the only way you’ll grow your shipments is to win more market share from competitors. Get used to flat sales and razor thin margins folks. That’s the steady state of selling hardware.
Will this situation change? I doubt it. I have a hard time imagining what new capabilities phone or PC makers will be able to invent tomorrow, to excite consumers into a big hardware refresh cycle.
So a tough situation for hardware makers and a good situation for everyone else. That’s life.